Archive for the ‘Current Events’ Category
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14
Jul
2008
Cell Phones, Polling and President Truman
Why Obama Could Be Winning by a Lot More Than You Think
Not everyone will agree, but for a number of reasons, this election seems like its Barack Obama’s to lose. He’s been routinely giving speeches to enthusiastic crowds of 50,000 or more, he’s been raising money faster than any other candidate in American history, and perhaps most importantly, he is a youthful, exciting, energetic candidate that represents a change in a change election.
John McCain on the other hand has struggled not only to keep pace financially, but also to inspire the same kind of enthusiasm in the electorate that Obama has demonstrated. With the faltering economy, an increasingly unpopular war, and close ties to an incumbent president with some of the lowest approval ratings in recorded history, it certainly seems like McCain would have his work cut out for him. In fact, all conventional wisdom says this should be a slam dunk win for Obama…
However, today’s Gallup tracking poll has Barack Obama listed with a mere three-point advantage over John McCain, 43% – 46%. Three points – that’s all? Can that be right? With everything that’s going on, how can it be that Obama’s only up 3 points in the polls?
In fact, most of the major tracking polls – Rasmussen, Newsweek, CNN, McLaughlin, – have the race at only a 1% – 5% point lead for Barack Obama; most are basically within the margin of error. How can it be that this seemingly lopsided race is so close? One shudders to think – but is it possible that all these polls are just plain wrong?
Maybe.
In 1948, President Harry Truman defeated Republican challenger Thomas A. Dewey by, what was at that time, the slimmest margin in the history of American politics. This narrow and frankly unexpected victory by Truman was forever immortalized by the photograph of Truman holding up the early edition of the November 3rd Chicago Tribune, bearing now-famous headline – “Dewey Defeats Truman”
How did the Chicago Tribune get it so wrong?
14
Jul
2008
Wrestlers, Comedians, and Politicians: Oh My!!!
The race for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat may get really interesting tonight!
Already in the race we have incumbent Norm Coleman – Republican, and comedian/political commentator Al Franken – Democrat. Fraken is already trying to prove to voters that he’s a funny guy on the side, but he’s serious about being Minnesota’s next Senator. Currently, Franken-D is polling about 10 points behind Coleman-R. It usually pretty tough to overcome 10 point deficits (especially when you’re running against an incumbent).
Now Minnesota has elected stranger characters to public office before. In 1998 Minnesota elected former wrestler Jesse “The Body” Ventura as Governor. He served only one four year term – but managed to cause a lot of controversy while he was in office!
Tonight, things will get interesting. Ventura plans to announce whether he’ll run for Senate (as an independent) or not on Larry King Live. No one goes on a major talk show to announce they’re NOT running for office. He’ll announce tonight.
So we’ll have a former wrestler, a former comedian, and a politician.
Unfortunately for Al Franken, this is a death blow for his chances for election.
Fortunately for us non-Minnesotans, this will provide interesting political fodder!
Update: Jesse Ventura didn’t announce on Larry King. Those professional wrestlers sure are sneaky! Looks like the race won’t be quite as interesting as I thought.
Update: Rasmussen’s July 14th poll has Franken leading Coleman 44% to 42%
13
Jul
2008
Are We ‘Whiners’ or Just ‘Bitter’?
Phil Gramm, former Senator from the great state of Texas, told the Washington Times that country was filled with “whiners” and the United States is merely in a “mental recession.” Senator Gramm is one of John McCain’s economic advisers.
If Senator Gramm’s comment on the economy is correct or not isn’t the point. Remember, politics is about perception.
This is quite difficult news for the millions of people across the country who are struggling with high gas prices and an increasingly difficult mortgage crisis.
However, on the other side, in April Senator Obama said many people in small-town America are “bitter” and “cling to guns or religion … as a way to explain their frustrations.”
Which also is a quite difficult comment for people to hear. Since April, this comment has created a perception by some on the right that Obama is a elitist snob, as seen in this mock-poster on the right. (More on this subject to come later)
Both comments make the average American feel looked down upon, naive, and a little stupid.
However, forget about what you think about each of these comments. What really matters in the long run is:
Which comment hurts the respective campaign’s chances at election more?
12
Jul
2008
Obama and NASCAR
A lot has been said about Barack Obama failing to connect with white, male voters.
In an apparent attempt to connect to these voters, the Obama camp thought about sposoring a NASCAR Cup car! Negations, however, failed and Obama did not become the primary sponsor of BAM Racing’s No. 49 Toyota, Sprint Cup car. Apparently the driver is a huge Republican. Oops.
If Obama had landed the No. 49 Toyota, would more people have voted for him? Is this an effective way to reach white male voters? Would it be more appropriate, or effective, for John McCain to sponsor a NASCAR Cup car?
btw – Whats more of a sport, NASCAR or cheerleading?
12
Jul
2008
Vetting the Veep
Lately, there has been a lot of discussion about who Barack Obama and John McCain will select for their respective running mates. A woman? black person? latino? Southerner? military experience? Who will it be?
The office of the Vice President is, however, one with little responsibility or power. Whereas in a high school, the Assistant Principal has several assigned duties (discipline, grade levels, etc…), the Vice President only has two assigned duties. Funny enough though, both of these Constitutional duties are quite ceremonial. (We discuss these two duties in detail in our Executive Branch Unit.)
So first of all, the job of VP isn’t that powerful or glorious.
However the trick is, to become Vice President you have to be elected. What makes this very interesting is that everyone who runs for VP is closely scrutinized. Hundreds, maybe thousands, of people will begin to separately dig through the past of the potential Vice Presidents. They’ll be looking for dirt. Anything that will sell a newspaper or make TV ratings go up. A nanny who’s an illegal immigrant, a video of a rude comment, or (best of all) an extra-marital affair – anything.
What both campaigns are doing now is called ‘vetting.’
The campaigns will look through the past, through all the dirt, of the people who may potentially be their Vice President. This means giving all sorts of personal information out to the Obama or McCain campaigns. I imagine that some people are giving some really juicy information out!
Why, however, you would want to go through a process like this, just to become a figure-head with little to no real responsibility, amazes me. In fact, some potential running mates have already bailed.
The New York Times has a good, up to date, analysis of the race to be Vice President. I think this particular page will be worth checking on a regular basis.
We’ll talk soon about how much the selection of a running mate actually makes a difference in the election.
Update: As of July 12th, Clinton is still on Obama’s ‘short list’ for VP running mates.
Update: Some vetting rumors may actually be a ruse!