31
Oct
2008
Approaching the witching hour
According to FirstRead:
We now have a good idea of where the two campaigns will spend their last four days until Election Day. Today, Obama campaigns in Iowa and Indiana, and in between the events he heads home to Chicago to spend part of Halloween with his daughters. On Saturday, he travels to Nevada (Henderson), Colorado (Pueblo), and Missouri (Springfield). On Sunday, it’s an entire day in Ohio (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati). And on Monday, per the New York Times, Obama hits Florida (Jacksonville), North Carolina, and Virginia (Manassas). As for McCain, he spends his entire Friday in Ohio; campaigns in Virginia and Pennsylvania on Saturday; then he’s reportedly hitting New Hampshire; and on Monday, he’s supposed to barnstorm through six states (including western ones like Nevada), with a final stop in — get this — Arizona.
Good luck with your predictions!
10
Sep
2008
McCain’s New Lead (tie?) in the Polls
John McCain’s Surge in the Polls!
It appear that John McCain is pulling ahead of Barack Obama in the national polls. We’ve seen an increasing trend in the past week puching McCain ahead. Some believe it is simply a post convention ‘bump’ in the polls, but many other believe that it is John McCain’s excellent pick of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate. In the begining of the summer, McCain was behind Obama by 15-20 percentage points. For him to be tied, and even leading in some polls, is quite amazing.
While the national polls have significant value, we have to remember that the Electoral College actually elects the President. The national trends may lead (or be pushed) by trends leaning McCain in key states. However, we haven’t seen the data yet from those key states quite yet. You Obama folks will really need to worry if polls in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire really start swinging McCain’s way. In addition, you McCain kids should really worry if those same few states swing the other way.
Let’s see if this trend lasts more than a week, or it’s something that will really stick for McCain.
There is an excellent site out there, www.electoral-vote.com, that posts the most recent polls as they are published. Remember though: not all polls are equal! Some are MUCH more reliable than others! There are several inheirent flaws to most polls today, including the increased use of cell phones and caller-ID.
You need 270 to win!
You can play it all out at www.270towin.com and predict what YOU think will happen on November 4th. Will Texas go Obama? California for McCain? What about something in between that’s a little more likely?
A bonus question for you!
Bonus to the person who finds the ‘reddest’ state out there right now, and the ‘bluest’ state also!
But here’s something, after you’ve read some articles and crunched some numbers, that you can really discuss:
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