21
Sep
2008
10
Sep
2008
McCain’s New Lead (tie?) in the Polls
John McCain’s Surge in the Polls!
It appear that John McCain is pulling ahead of Barack Obama in the national polls. We’ve seen an increasing trend in the past week puching McCain ahead. Some believe it is simply a post convention ‘bump’ in the polls, but many other believe that it is John McCain’s excellent pick of Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate. In the begining of the summer, McCain was behind Obama by 15-20 percentage points. For him to be tied, and even leading in some polls, is quite amazing.
While the national polls have significant value, we have to remember that the Electoral College actually elects the President. The national trends may lead (or be pushed) by trends leaning McCain in key states. However, we haven’t seen the data yet from those key states quite yet. You Obama folks will really need to worry if polls in Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and New Hampshire really start swinging McCain’s way. In addition, you McCain kids should really worry if those same few states swing the other way.
Let’s see if this trend lasts more than a week, or it’s something that will really stick for McCain.
There is an excellent site out there, www.electoral-vote.com, that posts the most recent polls as they are published. Remember though: not all polls are equal! Some are MUCH more reliable than others! There are several inheirent flaws to most polls today, including the increased use of cell phones and caller-ID.
You need 270 to win!
You can play it all out at www.270towin.com and predict what YOU think will happen on November 4th. Will Texas go Obama? California for McCain? What about something in between that’s a little more likely?
A bonus question for you!
Bonus to the person who finds the ‘reddest’ state out there right now, and the ‘bluest’ state also!
But here’s something, after you’ve read some articles and crunched some numbers, that you can really discuss:
[poll ID=4]
23
Aug
2008
26
Jul
2008
McCain Ready to pick his Veep?
John McCain is “in a position to make the decision [about his VP] on short notice if he wanted to.” according to one of McCain’s top advisers, Charles Black.
I’m reading from this that McCain has picked his VP choice, but hasn’t asked him or her to actually be his running mate. But perhaps he’s already asked and is waiting to announce his choice.
There’s a big issue of timing here.
The Olympics start in twelve days (08.08.08). The Democratic Convention starts the day after the Olympics end (08.25.08). The Republican Convention starts four days after the Dems end (09.01.08).
Insiders are saying Barack Obama will announce before the Olympics start, and John McCain will announce soon (maybe before Obama announces).
All-in-all, we don’t really know when either candidate will announce, but it will be sooner rather than later.
12
Jul
2008
Vetting the Veep
Lately, there has been a lot of discussion about who Barack Obama and John McCain will select for their respective running mates. A woman? black person? latino? Southerner? military experience? Who will it be?
The office of the Vice President is, however, one with little responsibility or power. Whereas in a high school, the Assistant Principal has several assigned duties (discipline, grade levels, etc…), the Vice President only has two assigned duties. Funny enough though, both of these Constitutional duties are quite ceremonial. (We discuss these two duties in detail in our Executive Branch Unit.)
So first of all, the job of VP isn’t that powerful or glorious.
However the trick is, to become Vice President you have to be elected. What makes this very interesting is that everyone who runs for VP is closely scrutinized. Hundreds, maybe thousands, of people will begin to separately dig through the past of the potential Vice Presidents. They’ll be looking for dirt. Anything that will sell a newspaper or make TV ratings go up. A nanny who’s an illegal immigrant, a video of a rude comment, or (best of all) an extra-marital affair – anything.
What both campaigns are doing now is called ‘vetting.’
The campaigns will look through the past, through all the dirt, of the people who may potentially be their Vice President. This means giving all sorts of personal information out to the Obama or McCain campaigns. I imagine that some people are giving some really juicy information out!
Why, however, you would want to go through a process like this, just to become a figure-head with little to no real responsibility, amazes me. In fact, some potential running mates have already bailed.
The New York Times has a good, up to date, analysis of the race to be Vice President. I think this particular page will be worth checking on a regular basis.
We’ll talk soon about how much the selection of a running mate actually makes a difference in the election.
Update: As of July 12th, Clinton is still on Obama’s ‘short list’ for VP running mates.
Update: Some vetting rumors may actually be a ruse!